Key Nodes: 2024 Investment Strategy!
The future prospects may still be obscure.
However, this year has added a certainty: the cost and risk of shorting are increasing significantly!
Whether through political or economic means, short sellers must now consider whether they are robust enough.
This gives me an opportunity to devise an investment strategy that can be both offensive and defensive.
To this end, I have divided the stocks I am watching into two dimensions to facilitate my thinking on how to choose the right stocks for positioning!
First, they are divided by risk into: high-quality assets with risk, and high-quality assets with certainty.
They are all good stocks, just with different levels of risk.
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Second, they are divided by price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio into four ranges: below 10 times, 10-15 times, 15-20 times, and above 20 times.
This year, I will focus on positioning in the two ranges of 10-15 times and 15-20 times.
The main logic is: 1.
Stocks with a P/E ratio above 20 seem a bit expensive.
Regardless of how crazy the valuation history of A-shares is, it is certain that the overall valuation will shift downward under the registration system.
At the same time, the current funding environment cannot support high valuations.
If the P/E ratio of 20 times continues to rise, the pressure will be quite significant.
2.
Stocks with a P/E ratio below 10 lack long-term certainty.
Apart from a few stocks, most of them are high-quality assets with risk, which is a certain distance from the high-quality assets with certainty that I want.
For example, cyclical assets like coal and oil, financial stocks like banks and securities that I have always been reluctant to touch, and some real estate stocks with unclear prospects (I don't want to be a gambler betting on its recovery).
Therefore, from a macro valuation perspective, stocks in the 10-20 times range are more appropriate strategic targets.
They have room to rise and a bottom to fall back on, which is very suitable for an offensive and defensive strategy.
From a micro perspective of individual stocks, the concept of the 10-20 times range is also quite rich, and many previously overvalued stocks have fallen into this range, offering many choices.
To better refine my investment thinking, I have divided this range into two layers for analysis.
First, the stock selection strategy for the 10-15 times P/E ratio range.
There are quite a few stock options in this range, which is my key investment area, with main stocks including: 1.
Expressway stocks such as Ninghu Expressway, China Merchants Highway, and Shandong Expressway, which currently have a P/E ratio of about 12 times, and their stock prices have been hitting new highs.
The steady increase in the number of cars is the long-term growth driver for expressway stocks.
2.
Home appliance leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Robam Appliances, as well as some niche market home appliance stocks, currently have a P/E ratio of about 13 times.
Home appliances are quite a stable sector, with valuations generally above 17 times, and small home appliances even higher.
In fact, the negative impact of real estate on it is limited.
3.
Sub-sector medical leaders like Changchun High & New Technology, Ji Chuan Pharmaceutical, and Sunflower Pharmaceutical, currently with a P/E ratio of about 12 times.
Medical valuations have always been relatively high, and now this valuation level is considered to be oversold.
4.
Municipal water utility leaders like Xingrong Environment and Hongcheng Environment, currently with a P/E ratio of about 11 times.
Their quality may not be as good as Chongqing Water, which has a P/E ratio of about 17 times.
Their performance is generally stable, but their growth is average, mainly relying on asset acquisitions and price increases, with high dividends being an advantage.
5.
Media stocks like Phoenix Media, Zhongnan Media, and New Media Co., currently with a P/E ratio of about 11 times.
These are monopolistic businesses, companies that make money while lying down, but they are not much concerned by investors and are cold stocks.
6.
Home decoration stocks like Oppein Home and Sofina, currently with a P/E ratio of about 14 times, and the valuation is not high mainly because their performance has not followed the real estate industry's sharp decline, but the stock price has come down.
Their correlation with real estate is much greater than that of home appliance stocks.
I have always been worried about whether the performance will change, and if it does, the current valuation is not enough to look at.
7.
Individual auto stocks like SAIC Motor.
The auto industry is particularly competitive, and it is expected that future performance fluctuations will increase.
...
There are many more, I will not list them one by one.
This is the valuation range I focused on last year, and I expect it will remain so this year.
In this valuation range, many stocks are high-dividend stocks.
Many investors believe that when the overall market picks up, high-dividend stocks will be neglected.
I do not oppose this view, but my analysis is not only based on the point of high dividends.
I comprehensively consider factors such as historical valuation levels, current valuation levels, industry attributes, future performance certainty, whether it is oversold, and market attention, and after repeated comparisons, I believe that expressway stocks, home appliance sectors, and individual medical leader stocks are worth paying attention to.
Among them, there is an additional medical stock, which has the opportunity to become one of my main investment targets this year.
The specific stocks for investment have been explained in my weekly investment summary, and I will not elaborate further.
Second, the stock selection strategy for the 15-20 times P/E ratio range.
There are too many stocks in this range, and I cannot list them all.
I will just mention the important ones and the changes in my investment strategy.
1.
China Mobile, a stock I previously focused on, has risen from the 10-15 times PE range to the 15-20 times range, which means it will compete with stocks in this range for valuation.
Therefore, my investment strategy for China Mobile this year will shift to taking advantage of pullbacks and rebounds, or seizing opportunities to support the market, and I will be more cautious about chasing high prices!
2.
Pay great attention to the potential rebound opportunities of consumer stocks.
The quality consumer stocks I have been watching, such as Yili Shares and Fuling Zhacai, have fallen into this range of P/E ratios.
Many people still do not look good on this year's economic consumption, but investment is different, it needs to run ahead of economic indicators.
In general, this year will continue last year's investment style, but there will be some changes in operations, and the direction of stock selection will increase investment in medical and consumer stocks.
I have already tried recently, and the investment performance is not bad, and the future is worth looking forward to.